Tumour shrinkage can be predicted with an error of no more than 12% in 50% of cases, using DCE-MRI heterogeneity biomarkers.

Title
DCE-MRI biomarkers of tumour heterogeneity predict CRC liver metastasis shrinkage following bevacizumab and FOLFOX-6
Authors
J P B O'Connor, C J Rose, A Jackson, Y Watson, S Cheung, F Maders, B J Whitcher, C Roberts, G A Buonaccorsi, G Thompson, A R Clamp, G C Jayson and G J M Parker
Journal
British Journal of Cancer
Link
http://www.nature.com/bjc/journal/v105/n1/abs/bjc2011191a.html
Year
2011
Volume
105
Pages
139–145
Month
June
Abstract
Background: There is limited evidence that imaging biomarkers can predict subsequent response to therapy. Such prognostic and/or predictive biomarkers would facilitate development of personalised medicine. We hypothesised that pre-treatment measurement of the heterogeneity of tumour vascular enhancement could predict clinical outcome following combination anti-angiogenic and cytotoxic chemotherapy in colorectal cancer (CRC) liver metastases. Methods: Ten patients with 26 CRC liver metastases had two dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) examinations before starting first-line bevacizumab and FOLFOX-6. Pre-treatment biomarkers of tumour microvasculature were computed and a regression analysis was performed against the post-treatment change in tumour volume after five cycles of therapy. The ability of the resulting linear model to predict tumour shrinkage was evaluated using leave-one-out validation. Robustness to inter-visit variation was investigated using data from a second baseline scan. Results: In all, 86% of the variance in post-treatment tumour shrinkage was explained by the median extravascular extracellular volume (ve), tumour enhancing fraction (EF), and microvascular uniformity (assessed with the fractal measure box dimension, d0) (R2=0.86, P<0.00005). Other variables, including baseline volume were not statistically significant. Median prediction error was 12%. Equivalent results were obtained from the second scan. Conclusion: Traditional image analyses may over-simplify tumour biology. Measuring microvascular heterogeneity may yield important prognostic and/or predictive biomarkers.